Gartner Locates Virtual Worlds in Trough of Disillusionment; Mainstream within 5 Years

In Gartner's new report, Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2008, the research firm looks at 27 emerging technologies and identifies eight that will should have significant impacts on the workplace and be considered by technology planners in the next ten years. Based on Gartner's Hype Cycle, many of the technologies are currently seeing a downturn, like public virtual worlds, which are in the Trough of Disillusionment, but hold potential for the future. In fact, Gartner's latest predicts that public virtual worlds will see mainstream adoption within 2-5 years. For a deeper take on Gartner's hype cycle and virtual worlds, see our interview with Gartner VP Steve Prentice from earlier this year.

"Although Web 2.0 is now entering the Trough of Disillusionment, it will emerge within two years to have transformational impact, as companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the technologies and the cultural implications," Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow, said in a statement. "Later — in between two and five years — cloud computing and service-oriented architecture (SOA), which is moving up the Slope of Enlightenment, will deliver transformation in terms of driving deep changes in the role and capabilities of IT. Finally, public virtual worlds, which are suffering from disillusionment after their peak of hype in 2007, will in the long term represent an important media channel to support and build broader communities of interest."