Yankee Group Says Second Life Too PC-Centric To Be Relevant

The Yankee Group announced today that "the hype surrounding Second Life doesn’t match its actual marketplace impact." Based on Second Life's slowing growth rate and plateau of the average time actually spent in world at 12 minutes per month, the Yankee Group says that the actual reach for advertising in Second Life is far under the media's perspective of its power. It compares the virtual world to social networks like Facebook and Myspace, which have seen increases in usage time, and points to the PC-centered nature of Second Life as a limiting factor. "All is not lost with virtual worlds, said Christopher Collins, senior analyst in Yankee Group’s Consumer Research group. "However, for virtual worlds and metaverses to achieve greater potential in the marketplace and grow beyond early adopters, the experience must be untethered to meet the needs of the Anywhere Consumer™. Companies that provide remote access—through mobile devices or other means—to their web experience will have a greater impact than pc-centric companies."

That seems like common knowledge for virtual worlds providers, many of whom, Second Life included, are actively looking for or are encouraging users to find ways to interact with the world from phones, the Web, and other light-weight interfaces. It's not clear, though, if the study actually looks at how other virtual worlds are serving the "Anywhere Consumer."

Ken Aihara, who operates the Virtual Tokyo project in Second Life, expressed a similar concern in a recent interview with the AP. Since cell phone usage is apparently higher in Japan than PC usage, he believes that it will take a leap to the lighter technology platforms before Second Life will really catch on in Japan.

Facebook, which the Yankee Group reports  as seeing usage times "increased 24% over 6 months to 186 minutes per month, equating to 15-times more engagement per user than Second Life," does have a mobile component. However, it's currently a free service without ad support. 

Press release:
Yankee Group Says Hype of Second Life Far Outweighs Its Ability to Impact Mainstream Interactivity

Future Growth and Consumer Relevance Will Be Limited by the Tethered Experience of Virtual Worlds

BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Yankee Group today revealed that the hype surrounding Second Life doesn’t match its actual marketplace impact. Despite near-continuous coverage in the popular and business press, metaverses like Second Life are experiencing slowing growth and limited impact because of the tethered nature of their virtual world experience.

According to the recently published Yankee Group Note, Wither Second Life?, the growth rate of Second Life users has slowed since its peak in October 2006, while user engagement (as measured by average time spent per user) has leveled off at just 12 minutes per month. This is in stark contrast to other highly publicized sites such as MySpace and Facebook, which are seeing steady increases in both the number of users and the intensity of user engagement. Facebook’s average time spent per user, for example, increased 24% over 6 months to 186 minutes per month, equating to 15-times more engagement per user than Second Life. The Note considers a number of factors contributing to this stagnation, but concludes that Second Life’s PC-centric approach in an increasingly mobile world is to blame.

“All is not lost with virtual worlds,” said Christopher Collins, senior analyst in Yankee Group’s Consumer Research group. “However, for virtual worlds and metaverses to achieve greater potential in the marketplace and grow beyond early adopters, the experience must be untethered to meet the needs of the Anywhere Consumer™. Companies that provide remote access—through mobile devices or other means—to their web experience will have a greater impact than pc-centric companies.”

This Yankee Group Note underscores the importance of Anywhere access for online community environments and includes recommendations on how all companies—not just metaverses—can strive to integrate their PC-centric features with mobile features.

YANKEE GROUP (www.yankeegroup.com)

The people of Yankee Group are the global connectivity experts™—the leading source of insight and counsel for builders, operators and users of connectivity solutions. For nearly 40 years, Yankee Group has conducted primary research that charts the pace of technology change and its effect on networks, consumers and enterprises. Headquartered in Boston, Yankee Group has a global presence including operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific.

Contacts

Yankee Group
Christopher Collins, 617-598-7262
Yankee Group senior analyst
ccollins@yankeegroup.com
or
Christina Oh, 617-598-7238
Yankee Group public relations manager
coh@yankeegroup.com

Comments

[Nobody Fugazi]

Hrm. Well, I did post on the potential of using mobiles with Second Life using the AjaxLife interface...

http://www.your2ndplace.com/node/575

Still, the point is valid. However, it is a comparison of apples and oranges at this point.

Also, to my knowledge, 'metaverses' is not a plural... the concept of the metaverse is a unifying medium.

[Anthony Reisman]

I don't know if I buy this completely. Yes people are mobile and want to get their information anywhere, but people aren't going to use mobile devices for everything. PC based portals to that information will still be useful, especially if wanting to digest or sift through lots of information at once with a more comfortable interface.

[Randal Oulton]

>> Companies that provide remote access—through mobile devices or other means—to their web experience will have a greater impact than pc-centric companies.”

Bottom line, the end-user web experience on mobile devices is still shite. Can take like 15 minutes and cost 30 bucks to find a phone number. And, don't forget, as the population ages (and the disposable income follows them along that curve), people over 19 1/2 just can't see stuff that teeny on those teeny screens.

The web on mobile device stuff is just way overhyped, but the bottom line is, it's slow, clunky, and most people just plain can't see the darned stuff!

[Hamlet Au]

I have no idea where Yankee got its SL usage numbers, which don't seem to make sense. My post on this here:

http://nwn.blogs.com/nwn/2007/10/yankee-no-how.html

[88days]

It is still quite weird to listen to such analyses.. metaverse are not (yet??) a commercial environment, but a social communication media, and to some extent an interesting laboratory for community-based interactions... it is all in its infancy, and yet is influencing the RW quite heavily already..
Mobile experience and SL/metaverse would interact nicely in terms of integrating the communication and relationship built in SL with the RW location and whereabouts of people (avatars???).. "I am online" notice, messaging from SL to RL would render mobile devices a nice extension of our virtual existence..

[LostInTranslation]

I think it's wasteful to think about a unified system for anything which appeals to commercial interests. The Metaverse is a really cool idea. But that's art. Science and the world don't always follow the storyline. The characteristics of style and design aesthetics may be influenced and passion and drive may be too. But why does everyone feel like they must hang on to the idea of a global Metaverse as tightly as say a bible to a religious man. When is someone going to finally send out a myspace bulletin exclaiming the emperor has no clothes on?

It seems like theres a group of people in a room. One side are the geeks with the love for Neuromancer. The other are the corporate suits with the Cheshire-Cat grins. In the middle are the "people" in the real world. Right now the geeks have the spotlight for a while because their passion happens to be the hot topic of the date. The Suits are going to take advantage and smile all along the way to the bank. In the end the winner is the goofy guy in the middle of the room with the winning smile, the cutesy product with mainstream accessibility, and the following of kids. This new generation of kids is the biggest ever and they're smart too. I don't think they're going to stick with just one toy. And yes, they view these worlds as toys -- not extensions of self.

Here's to that guy.

[Micahel Henry]

Looks like Linden Lab is trying to figure out just how the 12 minutes was calculated?

http://blog.secondlife.com/2007/10/05/second-grade-math/

I for one can not work it out, I think they meant 12 hours rather than 12 minutes.

[callie]

Well there are alternatives to Secondlife. You can try I-Citizen. It’s new and fresh what’s more it’s the world’s first 3D world on mobile handsets. I know Secondlife and google are working hard to also release one for mobiles but Micazook with i-Citizen got there first. I-Citizen is also going to be available on PC format shortly with some massive cities like London and New York etc. Its fun to play and you can meet people and chat to them as you might have guessed. On a promotional note they give free prizes away to also keep members happy so if you want to give it a try then a place called I-Bid is a good starting point. Its beta release was announced in March 2008 and anyone can give it arty. You can get it from your mobiles browser or your pc by going to http://wap.icitizencommunity.com. Enjoy.

[len]

What is emerging marketwise is a stratification of the local room environments that are socially driven and the world map environments that are mirror worlds as MS said. Unifying these by navigation is the first chore. One in a local scene, communication services cluster according to social drivers.

The metaspace won't come from the platforms, but from a need to navigate in the mirror worlds to reach the room worlds. Then the so-called metaspace emerges organically from the geographic layers and the situations at a location.

It's the same old web story: location over format support.